I haven’t looked at the government bond yield curve for a while so here it is. I’m sure you don’t need the chart to know that the economic outlook was looking much better back in March and April, then it has since (i.e. the curve was sloping upwards much steeper back then). With bond yields …
Category Archive: Economy
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Jul 28
Robert Shiller expects a double dip recession in the US
I returned home this afternoon from a conference and turned on the new 24hour news channel, ABC24, and was listening to a couple of Australian finance experts say how positive they are about the US Economy. The ABC interviewer said Robert Shiller (Yale Professor of Economics and early predictor of both the tech crash and …
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Jul 08
A short simple end of financial year review
Sharemarkets both here and around the world showed solid performance over the last 12 months despite the lingering effects of the Global Financial Crisis in the form of sovereign debt concerns in Southern Europe. The performance of Global Shares was 5.3%[1] in the year to 30 June 2010 although the last 3 months declined by …
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Jul 06
Asset Class Performance for 2009-10
Overall it was a pretty good 12 months for all asset classes as they pretty much all achieved positive returns. Gold (USD) was the best with an annual return to the end of June 2010 of 34% whilst the only negative performer was the Australian Mercer Unlisted Property (pre-tax) index (looks like valuations finally caught …
Jul 06
Looks like interest rates might be flat for a while
The latest yield curve of Australian Government Bonds shows interest rates staying around 4.5% for the next 3 years. This is a fairly obvious statement about our economy suggesting that growth is likely to be flat for a few years and inflation too is likely to be relatively unchanged. Of course, this view may will change …
Jun 30
Krugman says the depression has started
In the New York Times yesterday Paul Krugman’s Op-Ed piece suggested we are at the start of the world’s third depression thanks to fiscal tightening from Europe and the likely resultant deflation. I’m not going to do his article any more injustice so please have a read by clicking here…perhaps the stockmarkets of the world …
Jun 22
Financial Crises for Dummies
Just found a great little article on the basic characteristics of financial crises by Rick Bookstaber…click here. It all seems so simple…before a crisis, Bookstaber says, “Equities are rising Volatility is low Credit spreads are narrow Correlations are low The opportunities are in the hinterland of low liquidity The yield curve is steep” Its all …
May 18
Short Economic Outlook for Newsletters
The economic recovery in Australia continues to be stronger than expected and is more aligned with our major Asian trading partners than other developed nations of the world. In its May 2010 Statement on Monetary Policy, the Reserve Bank forecast the Australian economy to expand around 3.25% over 2010 with increased growth during 2011 of …
Apr 30
Euro Problem
The Euro member countries with the highest levels of debt (Greece, Portugal, and Spain) have another problem that restricts their ability to fight their current economic enemies…the Euro. Before the crisis, these countries experienced significant investment and a property boom resulting in strong economies and inflation that was higher than the other Euro member countries. …
Apr 30
Greek Impact
Potential Consequences of a Greek Default Whilst Greece is only a small part of the EU economy (it accounts for less than 2% in combined GDP of the sixteen EU member states) the potential default on its sovereign debt may have significantly greater ramifications… The largest holders of Greek Sovereign debt are the Greek banks. …