Source: Bloomberg The above chart shows the last 12 months of VIX index. For those who don’t know, the VIX, effectively, is a mathematical representation of expected future volatility of the S&P500 (its a little more than that but lets keep it simple). For me, the VIX is the one “trade” that has consistently shown …
Monthly Archive: May 2011
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May 26
Mortgage Arrears hits record high
I haven’t seen the numbers myself but just read this headline on the ABC24 so I assume its true. I guess the headline means only more downward pressure on residential housing prices as those under pressure are forced to sell, and sell at whatever they can. Certainly if the mortgagee doesn’t sell then ultimately the …
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May 25
Australian Government Bond Yield Curve…flattening
Not surprisingly the Australian Government Bond yield curve has flattened signficantly over the last month. The longer part of the curve is lower than it has been for much of this year which is typically an indication of less confidence in the economic outlook in our country. On the other hand, the shorter term yields …
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May 23
WordPress.com to WordPress.org
I’ve had a go at improving the capability of my blog by moving to wordpress.org and unfortunately have lost many of my previous links. So if anyone clicks on any search terms found on google they may not work but can still be found here by searching within this site. My apologies for any inconvenience. …
May 14
I Still Hate Structured Products – JB Global’s Latest
Its been a little while since I’ve ranted about structured product but for the second straight year a set of structured producted produced by JB Global have created some annoyance in me. I don’t know much about JB Global other than, they’re not too global, and they release a lot of structured products because, as …
May 13
Californian Lifeguard Salary…unbelievable!
I found the following excerpt on Greg Mankiw’s blog (http://gregmankiw.blogspot.com/) and as he suggests I’m sure it “might help explain some of California’s fiscal problems”. As a colleague said to me this afternoon, “I don’t even think the Bondi lifesavers get paid anywhere near this; even with their TV show!”… According to a [Newport Beach] …
May 12
The best return available for retirees
Believe it or not it comes from Lifetime Annuities…the obvious catch is that you need to survive beyond your life expectancy. In Australia, this product type has been totally out of favour since the government reduced social security benefits associated with them a few years back but perhaps this is an overreaction and their true value has …
May 12
Perpetual Portfolio Manager’s Interesting View
I just had a meeting with Charlie Lanchester, who manages half of Perpetual’s massive Industrial Share Fund, and his views on the Australian economy were far more dire than many commentators are saying. Like many, he believes that commodity prices are very high and showing signs of faultering (doesn’t mean they going to crash just …
May 06
Increase in Government Bond Yields Today
Contrary to suggestions in my last post, yields across the yield curve have moved a bit today…as the above chart shows the curve is up between 5bp and 9bps. This is a result of the Reserve Bank increasing its inflation outlook over the next 2 years. The Reserve Bank believes inflation will be above its …
May 06
The extreme but possible storm ahead
Attended a Researcher’s conference yesterday which had an interesting line-up of speakers that covered China, the global economy, Small cap stocks, and . The first guy was very impressive, an investment Strategist, he did a “Me-style” global economic presentation (perhaps that’s why I liked him) where the key points were… Commodity Prices in a bubble Australian …