Tag Archive: equities

Feb 13

Economic Growth & Sharemarket Returns … looking for relationships

Background According to (Elroy Dimson, 2010) the “conventional view Is that, over the long run, corporate earnings will constitute a roughly constant share of national income, and so dividends out to grow at a similar rate to the overall economy. This suggests that fast-growing economies will experience higher growth in real dividends, and hence higher …

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Aug 17

Look for the Signal amongst the Noise

Background When disappointing performance occurs, alarm bells will typically ring in the minds of investors, advisers, asset consultants and perhaps the managers themselves. Investing has only ever been a long game but thanks to the internet, the 24-hour news cycle, social media, etc. etc., it appears that success is expected to occur quickly and this …

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May 30

The influence of equities on multi-asset strategies…both less and more than you think

Background Over recent years many commentators and experts have spoken of the significant risks superannuation funds are carrying with respect exposure to Australian equities. Most notable were comments a few years ago from David Murray, former Chairman of the Future Fund, and Ken Henry, former Federal Treasurer, who both said they had concerns that Australian superannuation funds …

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Mar 30

Australian Equities Market from a Global Equities Perspective…quant- style

It’s well known that the Australian equity market is only around 2% of Global equity markets. When we have allocations that overweight the Australian equities asset class compared to the Global equities asset class in our portfolios, it is typically justified due to the benefits of franking credits, higher dividends, and perhaps familiarity. The primary risks associated with …

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Feb 07

Some Simplisitic Australian Market Analysis … setting a forecast baseline and a few trend-lines

Like all economies, the Australian economy is always facing significant challenges. Since 1970 there has been the 1973 oil crisis and double digit inflation of the 1970s, the 1980-81 recession, further high inflation of the 1980s, crash of 1987, the recession we had to have in 1991, Asian crisis of 1998, global tech crash from …

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Aug 26

Real Return funds…lacking real-ity?

What a fascinating investment world its been over the past few months. We’ve had concerns about Greece exiting the Euro, commodity price crashes, a Chinese sharemarket crash and now some of the biggest developed economy sharemarket declines since the dark days of the GFC. Volatility has been somewhat benign for a long time thanks to …

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Feb 21

A few simple thoughts on a few not so simple markets

Following are my recent thoughts around markets with many charts to support these views. These views are far from complete but do represent a reasonable summary at this point in time. Income Assets   Source: RBA, Delta Research & Advisory The above left chart suggests the market believes the cash rate is heading towards 1.5% …

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Oct 11

Australian Bonds and Equities…who would’ve thought?

Source: Morningstar Direct, Delta Research & Advisory Over the last 5 years their performance has been pretty much the same…with the obvious exception that equities has bee a much much wilder ride. The reality of bonds in this global economy is that the outlook is still not that great from the major players (US, Japan, …

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Aug 22

Low Beta Anomaly…mispricing or risk?…(a little technical)

At the Portfolio Construction Conference 2014 I had the good fortune of being on stage to discuss Ryan Taliaferro’s presentation on the Low Beta Anomaly. Now I know I’ve opened up with a lot of jargon, so in plain english…the low beta anomaly  more or less says, shares that exhibit low levels of price volatility, on …

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Jan 14

Cliff’s Top 10 Peeves…and a couple of my own

I know this is possibly a little old now but one of my recent favourite articles is about to be published in the Financial Analysts Journal, My Top 10 Peeves, by Cliff Asness of AQR. Just click the article name to open and read for yourself. There are quite a few gems in there but …

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