The RP Data/Rismark house price index has shown the first monthly decline in house prices in 17 months and largest since April 2008!!! …well…its down seasonally adjusted…house prices actually still went up. With global asset allocation gurus like Jeremy Grantham (one of the fundies I do listen to) and vocal locals like Steve Kean suggesting the Australian …
Monthly Archive: July 2010
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Jul 30
Australian Government Bond Yield Curve update
I haven’t looked at the government bond yield curve for a while so here it is. I’m sure you don’t need the chart to know that the economic outlook was looking much better back in March and April, then it has since (i.e. the curve was sloping upwards much steeper back then). With bond yields …
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Jul 28
Robert Shiller expects a double dip recession in the US
I returned home this afternoon from a conference and turned on the new 24hour news channel, ABC24, and was listening to a couple of Australian finance experts say how positive they are about the US Economy. The ABC interviewer said Robert Shiller (Yale Professor of Economics and early predictor of both the tech crash and …
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Jul 20
More inaccurate analysts
This chart comes from the McKinsey Quarterly from back in April 2010 and shows how inaccurate equity analysts have been when predicting Earnings for S&P500 companies over the last 25 years….basically far too bullish and no where near accurate. So just like the last post, the key learning is to not take too much notice …
Jul 20
Great to know these guys are paid a fortune
Strategists June 2011 forecasts for the S&P/ASX 200 Deutsche Bank 6250 UBS 5800 Citigroup 5500 Goldman Sachs 5375 Macquarie 5068 JP Morgan 5000 Morgan Stanley 5027* Credit Suisse 5000* Merrill Lynch 4500* Average 5302 points Source: AFR 1 July 2010. *December 2010 forecasts – no June 11 forecasts provided With such variance amongst the so-called …
Jul 20
Latest Article for Publication – Guaranteeing Investment Success
I have just submitted an article, on behalf of my employer, to the Australian version of the Journal of Financial Advice. Its a fairly simple message….advisers could better look after their client’s financial needs and goals by increasing their focus on their client’s cash flow needs as opposed to the focus on investment strategy. I know …
Jul 08
A short simple end of financial year review
Sharemarkets both here and around the world showed solid performance over the last 12 months despite the lingering effects of the Global Financial Crisis in the form of sovereign debt concerns in Southern Europe. The performance of Global Shares was 5.3%[1] in the year to 30 June 2010 although the last 3 months declined by …
Jul 06
Asset Class Performance for 2009-10
Overall it was a pretty good 12 months for all asset classes as they pretty much all achieved positive returns. Gold (USD) was the best with an annual return to the end of June 2010 of 34% whilst the only negative performer was the Australian Mercer Unlisted Property (pre-tax) index (looks like valuations finally caught …
Jul 06
Looks like interest rates might be flat for a while
The latest yield curve of Australian Government Bonds shows interest rates staying around 4.5% for the next 3 years. This is a fairly obvious statement about our economy suggesting that growth is likely to be flat for a few years and inflation too is likely to be relatively unchanged. Of course, this view may will change …