Category Archive: Currency

Dec 31

Random Thoughts on Cryptocurrencies at a Random time of the year

I’m writing this on Boxing Day and unlucky me is recovering from Covid for the second time in 2022 (Week 1 and Week 52) and during this first sentence I think I have sufficient energy to write a few thoughts on cryptocurrency…so here it goes… Two or three years ago I was on stage at …

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Oct 21

Australian Government Bond Yields…little change in a month but…

  Source: RBA & Delta Research & Advisory The above chart shows very little change in Australian Government Bond yields over the last month which given what’s been happening in the US seems a little surprising. We’ve had massive fund managers losing confidence in the US Government and selling out of Treasury bonds and there …

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Aug 15

RimSec August Research Update

I can’t believe its four weeks since my last post so obviously its been a terribly busy period. Anyway, something I have completed is a market/economic update and if anyone’s interested you can download it here. The update is probably consistent with what is being said everywhere…but either way… The mining investment boom is over …

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Jul 12

A fascinating correlation…and why the Aussie dollar may have declined

  Source: Delta Research & Advisory, RBA Firstly the red line represents the US dollar/Aussie Dollar (RH Axis), so as the chart shows the US Dollar has strengthened since around the middle of April (so you can ignore the AUD label). The other line is the difference in yield (or spread) between the Australian 10 …

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May 14

Rimsec May Research Report

The Rimsec Monthly Research report came out today which has commentary on current investment market themes, interest rate thoughts and some information on one of the significant risks within China…their property bubble. Anyway, if it is of interest you can download it by clicking here.    Send article as PDF   

Aug 11

Investment Perspectives

Its been a while since I put some of my broader investment thoughts in writing and I’ve just written almost 4000 words to satisfy that…so it also sort of makes up for my lack of posting. So below is a lot of what I have written and hopefully its readable for anyone interested…I actually haven’t …

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Apr 30

To Hedge or not to hedge?…MSCI provides an answer

Interesting paper by MSCI Research came out eaarlier in the week about hedging…click here. Its US centric with some interesting analysis and but the basic conclusion should apply to any country. i.e. basically over the long run currencies revert to the mean resulting in no real difference, but over the shorter term currency effects can …

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Nov 04

Long term bet of the month???

The US Dollar is at record lows thanks to the Fed’s announcement to print some money, the Renminbi (Yuan) is pegged to the US Dollar and the US Government is putting lots of pressure on the Chinese to appreciate it…surely the long term bet of the month is to buy the Yuan as there appears to …

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Nov 02

The RBA goes up and so does the Yield Curve

Normally I try and produce the chart before the RBA’s decision but was a little slow this time but it is a little intersting to see the market’s reaction to the RBA’s decision to increase the cash rate to 4.75% and its shown in the chart above…an increase in yields across the all maturities although …

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Oct 01

AUD and Parity with USD – only the bulls can maintain it

All this talk about Australian Dollar and US Dollar parity got me thinking about the behaviour of the Aussie relative to other assets, namely the sharemarket. The above chart shows that, with the exception of the first half of 2008 when the the sharemarket was a little more forward thinking than the RBA, there has …

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